Certainly uncertain

How does your mind react to uncertainty?

Which of the following types do you resemble more when you find yourself in an uncertain situation:

1. You get fixated on resolving the problem asap.

2. You take your sweet time to think more, analyze better, and maybe talk to others until you find the best solution.

Prehistorically speaking, resolving uncertainty right away was a survival trait. Anything unknown, be it fire or a wild animal, was a potential threat to life. Uncertainty was safely assumed to be a foe.

In current times, fear of the unknown is still a thing. Most people have a tendency to feel scared when they don’t have any information on what they are going to face. Be it a new school, workplace, etc.

But, uncertainty is more of a friend than a foe in the ever-changing times of today.

You have an advantage if you don’t tend to lose your sense of calm in uncertain situations (type 2 above). The more time you spend time in an unknown problem space, the more your mind finds creative solutions.

If you belong to type 1 above, you can learn to embrace the chaos.

One of the frameworks that helps embrace the chaos is the known unknowns matrix. It consists of four quadrants:

1. Known knowns: Things that we know can happen and we can plan for it in advance. I’ll carry an umbrella because it might rain.

2. Know unknowns: Things that we know can happen but we don’t have enough info to plan for it in advance. What will I do if my company is acquired years from now.

3. Unknown knowns: Things that we kinda know but aren’t fully aware of. These are mental mistakes or biases. It was confirmation bias that made John trust the facts presented in the video.

4. Unknown unknowns: Things that we aren’t aware of. The student had no idea what questions to ask because she had no idea about the new concept.

This matrix can help us identify the level of uncertainty.

Once we do, we can put our existing knowledge to use. We can acknowledge our lack of knowledge and gather new information to fill the missing gaps.

When uncertainty comes through the door, don’t be in a rush to push her out. Slow down. Welcome her with open arms. Get to know her. Before you know it, you’d make friends with her. She might even show you the way to the most creative solution.

Life after all, is certainly uncertain.