Happy times ahead 🌈 — Optimism Bias
Where you stand on the optimism scale, the unknown unknowns, and the kiss study.
Hi there! Welcome to 10x your mind 🧠. It’s week 4 of this newsletter.
Each week, we learn to dodge a mental mistake (fancily called a ‘cognitive bias’).
In case this is your first email from me or if you didn’t get a chance to read the prior editions, please check them out:
Week 1 — I see only what I believe 👀—Confirmation bias
Week 2 — I knew it all along 🤓—Hindsight bias
Week 3 — Gullible, me? No way! 🤷🏻♀️— Anchoring bias
Before we go ahead with this week’s bias (which is my favorite of all biases btw 😃), two quick things:
A big thanks from the bottom of my heart for your email responses, comments, and feedback ❤️. They keep my spirits up and push me to make 10x your mind better, which brings me to thing 2.
As recommended by a reader (and my dear friend), I’m starting an audio version of this newsletter 🎧. If you’re more of a listener than a reader, then it’s for you. I’ll send you an email as soon as the audio version is up.
Happy reading, happy listening!
Reading time: 7 mins
Answer these five questions before reading the following post.
How lucky are you in general?
[ ] Below average
[ ] Average
[ ] Above average
[ ] Exceptional
How would you rate yourself in feeling empathy towards others?
[ ] Below average
[ ] Average
[ ] Above average
[ ] Exceptional
How’s your fitness level?
[ ] Below average
[ ] Average
[ ] Above average
[ ] Exceptional
How smart are you compared to others?
[ ] Below average
[ ] Average
[ ] Above average
[ ] Exceptional
How smart is your kid? (If you don’t have a kid, think of your niece/nephew/friend’s kid/kid you adore).
[ ] Below average
[ ] Average
[ ] Above average
[ ] Exceptional
More on the quiz in a short while. First, let me tell you about a family holiday we recently planned in Langkawi 🤩.
It’s a short, 5-day trip. The travel is ten days away. But that’s not stopping us from imagining ourselves sipping margaritas/lemonades overlooking the secluded beach with clear, blue waters.
My kids are looking forward to kayak through the mangroves. I can’t wait to glare in awe at the 5000-year-old caves and 500 million-year-old limestone rocks! Plus there’s always the local cuisine to relish!
The reality could differ of course — Waters can be murky because it’s monsoons. The mangrove forest tour can be canceled if it rains. We might not even get to visit the caves. It’s also likely that I won’t be able to enjoy any local delights as I’m a vegetarian!
Bummer? Not by a long shot. We think that this is going to be our best holiday ever!
Confession — We feel like this before every holiday 😛. We are optimists.
And we are not alone.
80% of the people make this mental mistake — overestimating the chances of good things happening to them and underestimating the chances of bad things happening to them.
We underestimate the chances of falling sick, being hit by a car, getting divorced, being fired, etc. We overestimate holiday fun, the aptitude of our kids, our professional success, our future finances, our life span, etc.
The tendency to overestimate the likelihood of good things happening to you and underestimate the likelihood of bad things happening to you is called the optimism bias.
It’s the difference between your expectations of the future and what really happens:
If your expectations are better than reality, you’re optimistic.
If your expectations are worse than reality, you’re pessimistic.
If your expectations match reality most times, you don’t suffer from this bias.
Where do you stand on the optimism scale?
Time for the quiz results
If you answered ‘above average’ to most questions, you are an optimist.
If you answered ‘below average’ to most questions, you are a pessimist.
If you answered ‘average’, looks like you’re free of the optimism bias!
Most of us rate ourselves as ‘above average’ in day-to-day skills, like emotional intelligence, smartness, driving, etc.
It’s technically not possible for most people to be above average. That beats the whole ‘average’ logic 😅. Yet, that’s where we stand. We tend to overestimate our capabilities.
What does optimism have to do with overestimating our capabilities?
The optimists don’t just overestimate their abilities. They also overestimate the role of their capabilities in success and failure. e.g:
Because I’m smart, I’ll land a better deal with the client.
Because I’m more kind and loving than average, my marriage will never fail.
Because I’m a better driver than average, I won’t get in an accident.
They fail to see that their capabilities alone can’t guarantee success.
The client might scrap the project because of a change in company policy.
Your partner might not click with you and dump you.
A drunk driver might ram into your car.
Optimists hate the idea of not being in control.
Here’s a famous dialogue between Neo and Morpheus from the movie The Matrix.
Morpheus: Do you believe in fate, Neo?
Neo: No.
Morpheus: Why not?
Neo: Because I don’t like the idea that I’m not in control of my life.
Whether you believe in fate or not, you must learn to dodge the mistakes that optimists tend to make.
Dodging unknown unknowns
Donald Rumsfeld, the American politician coined ‘unknown unknowns’ to explain unexpected future events. We don’t know what we don’t know.
Unexpected delays tend to creep in. Look at any long-term projects of an IT company, a construction project of an estate, or even the kitchen renovations.
Completion time always overshoots the initial estimates.
There’s a name for this common mistake of underestimating the amount of time it will take to complete a project. It’s called the planning fallacy.
How do we dodge this mistake?
Here are three steps as suggested by Danish planning expert Bent Flyvbjerg:
Look for a reference project, something that was similar to yours. e.g., website development, kitchen renovation, etc.
Find out how much time and cost it took. Based on that, estimate the numbers for your project.
Factor in your specific project needs. Do you need to dial in or dial out the optimism bias for your case?
e.g., If your website is just one page as compared to the 10-page reference website, your estimated completion time and cost would be much less. But if your service is more complicated, factor in more effort.
Optimism pulls us towards the best-case scenario. It pushes us away from being realistic.
How do optimists and pessimists think differently? Is it possible to turn off the optimism switch in our brains? What happens if we do?
Let’s have a look at some studies conducted by the experts.
The kiss study 💋
Behavioral economist George Lowenstein asked students in this university to imagine getting a kiss from a celebrity of their choice.
He then asked them how much are they willing to pay if the kiss was delivered immediately, in 3 hours, in 24 hours, in 1 year, in 3 years, or in 10 years.
Surprisingly, they were willing to pay the most not when the kiss was immediate. Instead, when the kiss was in 3 days!
They were willing to pay for waiting.
Anticipation makes us happy regardless of the outcome.
What’s your favorite day of the week? For most people, Saturday comes first followed by Friday, then Sunday.
Why is Friday loved more than Sunday?
Friday is a work day and Sunday is an off day. But Friday brings anticipation of the weekend ahead. The anticipation Sunday brings is that of the work week ahead.
Optimists anticipate more. They expect more.
When they succeed, it’s because of their skills. When they fail, it’s because of an error. e.g., I passed the exam because I worked hard. I failed the exam because the exam was unfair.
It’s the opposite with pessimists. When they fail, it’s because they were dumb. When they succeed, it’s because the exam was easy.
Inside the minds of the optimists and pessimists
Neuroscientist Tali Sharot and her team set out to figure out what goes inside the brains of optimists and pessimists.
Using a brain imaging scanner and fMRI (fancy equipment for brain study), they identified the regions in the brain that responds to positive information. It’s called the left inferior frontal gyrus.
They also identified the regions in the brain that responds to negative information. It’s called the right inferior frontal gyrus.
If you are a pessimist, your right inferior frontal gyrus would light up more than that of an optimist when you hear bad news⚡️.
The crazy scientists managed to block the left inferior frontal gyrus temporarily. In other words, they figured out a way to turn optimists into pessimists!
But is that something you’d want to do?
Studies show that people with mild optimism bias are far better off than people with pessimism bias.
Our mildly optimistic guy above is the winner!
Pessimists are more prone to clinical depression. In fact, people who don’t have optimism bias (the neutral folks) are also prone to borderline depression.
The only bias that you don’t want to get rid of
If you are a pessimist, you are more likely to accept bad outcomes. You won’t try hard to fight hard times, which means you are less likely to get out of bad times.
On the other hand, optimists don’t give in easily. They believe more in positive outcomes and in themselves. They try harder, work harder, fight bad times harder, and are generally known to call themselves lucky.
They are a cheerful lot. They are more confident and are risk-takers. Their immune system is stronger. They feel healthier and they take better care of their health. Their chances of clinical depression are low. They are likely to live longer, healthier lives.
The optimism bias is the most important of all biases when it comes to decision-making.
Understanding this bias helps you realize where you stand on the optimism scale. It helps you stay motivated in tough times. It helps you become wary of unrealistic plans. It helps you factor in the unknown unknowns. It helps you make better decisions.
It’s safe to say that understanding this bias makes you smarter 🙌.