More I learn, the more I suck 😫— Dunning-Kruger Effect
The trampoline jumps, three learning phases, and smartest person in the room.
I was jumping high on a trampoline. Sia, my 14-year old was on the trampoline next to me. We were in Bounce, a trampoline park in Singapore. As I made a 360-degree turn in air and landed back smoothly, the voice in my head said “I’m killing it!”
Sia was doing better. She jumped high, landed on her knees, and went back up. Neat stunt, I thought. But she blurted out, “I suck.”
A rookie like me was feeling good just jumping in the air. The one who could pull a stunt or two was feeling inadequate. What was going on?
Later, we googled and Sia showed me what it means to be a pro👇
My lack of knowledge made me overestimate my competence. Sia’s knowledge about the skill made her underestimate her level.
As it turns out, it’s a common mental mistake.
In 1999, psychologists David Dunning and Justin Kruger tested participants for their skills in grammar, logic, and sense of humor. They discovered that those who performed the worst ranked themselves far above average. Although their test scores put them in the 12th percentile, they estimated themselves to be in the 62nd percentile.
They coined this cognitive bias the Dunning-Kruger effect.
The mental mistake of wrongly overestimating one’s expertise due to lack of awareness or underestimating one’s expertise because of the awareness is called the Dunning-Kruger effect.
People who aren’t skilled lack metacognition, that is, the ability to analyze their own thinking. Metacognition is an essential part of learning and creative problem-solving.
As the participants improved their skills in an area, their metacognitive abilities also improved. It helped them understand their limitations better.
To understand why we make this mental mistake, it’s important to understand how our mind learns a new skill.
Learning roughly happens in three phases.
Let’s unpack these phases.
Phase 1 — I’m killing it 😎
When you start from zero, initial progress comes easy. If you are learning a new language, mastering five new words each day is progress. If you are learning a new instrument, playing a new note is progress. For a never-before runner, running 30 mins at a stretch is progress.
In this phase, personal bests keep rolling in! You feel like Mario on power-up, cruising through the Mushroom kingdom, invincible.
Phase 2 — I suck 😫
Then there comes a time when the going gets tough.
Challenges become tougher. Nuances creep in. Finer details start to matter. Make a conversation in the new language, play a complex composition, run uphill at a steady pace, master flips on the trampoline, etc.
You are putting in a lot more effort than before. It starts to hurt.
It hurts the most when you make most progress.
You get to know what it takes to be an expert.
Most people quit at this phase thinking this is the best they could do. The reality is far from it. By now, you have actually made a lot of progress. You are already better than average although you are still not an expert.
People who haven’t been in the “I suck” phase don’t know of these nuances. They actually think they are better than others.
To dodge this mental mistake, when you are feeling like you suck, rewind your life to phase 1 and compare your progress. More importantly, don’t stop putting in the effort now. Do your reps, practice the instrument, write that page, etc. Perform your action of the day that will bring you one step closer to the next phase.
“I know that I am intelligent because I know that I know nothing.”
— Socrates
Phase 3 — I’m in the zone 😇
You start to enjoy the process more than the result. You enjoy the running session more than looking at your stats. You cherish the time playing the composition more than the claps that follow. The workout is more enjoyable than the result on the weighing scale.
The more time you spend in this phase, the better you become. As you gain expertise, you start to notice patterns that novices don’t see. Your deep understanding helps you apply the knowledge with less ‘attentional’ effort. Simply put, what others find complex comes naturally to you.
With expertise comes the ability to solve new problems creatively. As novices are only aware of isolated facts, they can’t apply their limited understanding to troubleshoot unknown problems.
We are all experts at something, novices at other things. The Dunning-Kruger effect makes people believe that they are experts when they’re not.
Recognising this mental mistake will help you not mistake your competence. It will also help you not mistake the competence of others.
Who’s the smarterst person in the room?
Gaining little knowledge boosts confidence. It’s no surprise then that non experts are the loudest in team meetings and group settings. They voice their opinions more than the subject matter experts.
It is natural to trust a more confident person. Thanks to the Dunning-Kruger effect, we now know that confidence isn’t a true measure of mastery. They can be confident because they don’t know what they don’t know yet.
As a team leader, manager, teacher, or a parent, keep that in mind while making decisions. Don’t mistake the loudest person in the room as the smartest.
More importantly, don’t get too excited about your initial success while learning anything. Most likely, you’re not there yet.
Most importantly, while learning anything when you get a feeling that you’re starting to suck, don’t stop. Your rate of learning is max as you’re in the “I suck” phase. Before this, you were a noob. After this, you’ll be an expert. But this is the golden period of progress. Pat yourself on the back and do your reps for the day. You are closer than you think.